Oil prices and expected inflation

Since the end of the Great Recession, market-based measures of long-run inflation expectations have seemed highly correlated with the spot price of oil. To see what we mean, consider the FRED graph above, where we plot the price of oil (West Texas Intermediate) against the 5-year, 5-year forward expected inflation rate. This measure of expected inflation is calculated using measured yield differentials between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury securities (TIPs) at 10- and 5-year maturities. (To further highlight the correlation, consider the scatter plot of the same data below.)
The 5-year, 5-year forward rate is meant to capture the bond market’s 5-year average forecast of inflation beginning 5 years from now. In this way, anything expected to affect the economy over the next 5 years should not factor prominently in a long-run forecast made 5 years from now. But then, why should the contemporaneous price of oil correlate so highly with the

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Flight to Quality in Retail Real Estate Expected Post-Crisis

Retail tenants will gravitate to malls and shopping centers that hold dominant positions within their local trade areas as they seek to ensure their profitability following the coronavirus crisis, according to an April 8 Moody’s Analytics webinar.

Robb Paltz, associate managing director at Moody’s Investor Service, said retail tenants “can’t gamble on malls that are speculative or have low traffic volume and are going to create very low margins for them.” He said he expects a “flight to quality” within the retail REIT sector in response to the coronavirus crisis.

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